Can libraries weather the closing of the digital divide?

I work in a library so I will often relate what we talk about in class to libraries.  Libraries certainly play a part in the digital divide.  They help provide access to those who do not have access.  However, libraries provide a temporary solution, not a permanent one.  The permanent solution, and usually the goal of those addressing the digital divide, is that everyone has the technology to access the internet in their own home.  That solution, however, is well outside the bounds of what libraries do.  Libraries can't provide computers and internet to everyone in their home.  So libraries help bridge the digital divide, but they are not (nor will be) responsible for closing the gap.

That in itself is not my argument, but an assumption of it.  I wondered what would happen to libraries as the digital divide narrows and eventually is gone.  My initial thought was that as more people get computers and internet access in their home the libraries patronage would drop.  That was going to be my argument, but as I started to think of arguments against this idea, I eventually persuaded myself that libraries won't see a substantial drop in patronage as more users gain internet access in their homes.

I'll start with the why someone would think that libraries will lose patrons as they get their own personal internet access:

• Computer and internet usage has become one of the primary services in libraries, particularly to the low-income patrons who do not have personal access.  In fact, 45% of all library patrons use the libraries computers to connect to the internet according a 2010 U.S. IMPACT study on the impact of library computer and internet services.  If all patrons had internet access in their homes, libraries could stand to lose a substantial portion of their users.

Really, that's about it.  It was my initial reaction and so it could be the initial (and perhaps permanent) reaction of others.  But as I began to think about how the library is valuable and researched, I came to a different conclusion:  even if everyone had their own internet access, the library would still be valuable and would not lose substantial patronage.  Here's why:

• The same U.S. IMPACT study also found that of the library users that accessed internet (45% of all users), 75% of them had internet access elsewhere.  Admittedly, elsewhere could be at work or a friends house, but this still shows that people use the library (and its internet access) despite having home connections. Some of the reasons given for this in the study were the increased speed of the library's connection, not having to compete for internet time at home with other, and the library's quiet environment.
• Libraries provide value elsewhere.  Libraries provide a full range of services aside from computer and internet access.  Just because someone doesn't need to use a library computer that doesn't mean they won't use the library at all.
• Libraries can still provide technology value.  Even though users have home computers and internet access they may not have certain hardware or software that the library can provide.  Video editing software, copy machines, and projectors are just a few examples.
• Libraries can (and have been) adapting to user needs to provide value. The digital divide won't disappear overnight, it will be gradual.  Even if it is foreseeable that users will slowly no longer need computer and internet access, libraries can provide services users do need instead.  It wouldn't be the first time libraries have eliminated or severely scaled back services that were no longer in demand (think microfilm, CD-ROM databases)

So I think it's clear that the closing of the digital divide won't spell doom for libraries.  They will however need to be vigilant.  There will probably be a small segment of users who won't see as much value in the library when they gain personal internet access, but the library can mitigate that through other services and developing new services by being continually attuned to user needs.